The Autumn Budget will be delivered on 26 November, but the Chancellor’s recent speech in Liverpool has offered some early clues about what might be announced.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves appeared to prepare the ground when she stated: “We will face further tests, with choices to come, made all the harder by harsh global headwinds and long-term damage to the economy, which is becoming ever clearer.”

Her comments highlight two main challenges:
• Global headwinds – including trade tensions, ongoing conflicts, and higher interest rates that continue to drive up costs.
• The UK’s long-standing productivity problem – with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expected to release a critical reassessment of the country’s long-term productivity performance.

In essence, the message seems clear: we should not be surprised if taxes increase, and we should not expect many giveaways.

How might taxes be raised?
It appears unlikely that there will be changes to the main tax rates such as Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT. When questioned about a possible VAT increase, the Chancellor replied: “The manifesto commitments stand.” She also emphasised that she wants to protect pay packets and “not put up the prices in shops”, making a direct VAT rise improbable. However, adjustments in other areas remain possible.

One way to raise additional revenue without altering headline rates is by maintaining the current freeze on tax thresholds. As wages rise with inflation, more individuals and businesses are pulled into higher tax bands.

Other potential targets for review include pensions, property-related tax reliefs, and various business incentives. The government could frame these measures as closing “loopholes” rather than introducing new taxes.

Reeves has also indicated there could be changes to the legally required biannual forecasts carried out by the OBR. At present, when mid-year OBR forecasts fall short of expectations, speculation about potential tax changes can create wider instability. Reducing these forecasts to once a year may help to avoid unnecessary volatility.

What this could mean for you
The full picture won’t be clear until the Budget is announced at the end of next month. However, early signs suggest it is unlikely to include major giveaways for business. Instead, the focus could be on maintaining stability and addressing gaps in the public finances.

As always, preparation is vital. Keep an eye on the announcements and be ready to adapt to any changes. We’ll provide full details and analysis following the Budget. If you would like tailored advice on how any changes might affect you, please don’t hesitate to get in touch — we’d be happy to help.